Start with public records
Election results, turnout history, district boundaries, registration data where available, and source notes.
Political research · public data
Identify races worth a closer look.
October Surprise turns public election data, district context, and analyst notes into concise research briefings.
Narrow the list
Separate the races worth research attention from the ones that only look interesting in a spreadsheet.
Write for decisions
Every briefing should end with a clear recommendation: research now, compare later, monitor, or set aside.
Research desk
Useful before the work gets complicated.
- Pick a geography or office type.
- Review a small set of candidate races.
- Compare priority, volatility, and near-term value.
- Export the rationale into a briefing.
Briefing example
A good report makes the next conversation shorter.
The example briefing organizes a race around evidence, caveats, and clear recommendation.